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Why the Election was Lost

Although our own (MCFAN) grassroots organizing exceeded expectations and provided a powerful boost to our local Republican party organization, the same was not true statewide or nationwide. We heard repeated complaints that in state after state, potential volunteers were rebuffed by moderate “regular party” Republicans. An exclusive party is a permanent minority party. The party that does the best job of attracting, welcoming and empowering new people has a decisive advantage in close elections, and the power to overcome other disadvantages. So long as elections are determined by votes, not dollars, grassroots organizing will remain decisive. We must continue our grassroots organizing and extend it to the state and national levels.

2.     Fundraising

The McCain campaign stuck with public financing as envisioned in McCain/Feingold, even after Obama recanted his pledge to do likewise. McCain might have had a chance to match Obama if he had responded by abandoning his own legislation and like Obama leveraged the internet for fundraising. He didn’t. So Obama ended up with several times as much money to spend on the campaign as McCain, probably the most imbalanced “war chest” in a century. The money that flowed into McCain after Palin was announced went to a “Compliance Fund”, and only a part of it came back to help McCain. Never mind the observation that sometimes when you reach across the aisle to the other side, you may lose your arm. Instead observe that technological obsolescence in the age of the internet age can be a decisive disadvantage in building grassroots organization building and fundraising. We must ensure that our side catches up with technology.

3.     Message

Obama had a message of Change, and he stayed on message throughout the campaign. McCain’s message was not as clear, not as consistent. Exit polls indicated that 23% of the voters viewed themselves as liberal, 44% as moderate, and 33% as conservative. According to that, McCain should have won handily as he is slightly to the right of moderate. Obama we believe, is way left of liberal. Even the “left coast” of California voted for Proposition 8, to restore the sanctity of marriage. That was not a normal ballot proposition; they had already passed a similar proposition which was overturned by the California Supreme Court. Proposition 8 was a constitutional amendment to overturn the California Supreme Court, and it won. If even the people of California believe that firmly in a “conservative” principle, how could we lose this election?

Because we did not communicate a consistent message that resonated with the voters. We must do better getting the right message to the American people and staying on message, because they share our values and beliefs.

4.     Media bias

Polls indicate that the American agree by more than 7-1 odds that the mainstream media was blatantly biased in favor of Obama. Even though they recognized that bias, they were affected by it. It may be a long time before they come to appreciate how distorted the news was, or how much innuendo supplanted news, or how much news and even facts were even suppressed in favor of Obama. We must support alternative channels of information including local news sources, encourage our fellow American to learn how to find their own information and form their own judgments, challenge the mainstream media on its disinformation and express our displeasure with the advertisers that keep them afloat.   

5.     Events

The mainstream media has capitalized upon every opportunity to turn the American people against the Bush administration (and by extension, the Republican party and its next candidate). They have had a host of such opportunities; the War in Iraq (pre-surge, before it was clearly winning), gasoline prices (before the call to resume domestic drilling poked a hole in the speculators’ balloon), expected hurricane disasters (new Republican governors prevented the disaster), and finally the economic collapse. Even Bill Clinton laid this last one at the feet of Congressional Democrats before a national audience, but it went nowhere on the national media. It has been pointed out (Gingrich?) that with an unpopular President, an unpopular war, out of control gasoline prices, a reeling economy and the uncertain effects on the American people of the bailout, the wonder is that a candidate of the same party as the incumbent President obtained even forty percent of the vote. The fact that McCain / Palin did as well as they did, indicates that Obama and the Democrats do not have a mandate and should proceed with caution.

Speaking of the percentage of the vote, 2008 was not a record setting year. In 2004, 65% of registered voters voted in the Presidential election. In 2008, only 60% of registered voters voted. The missing 5% probably voted with their feet for “none of the above”, by staying home. In 2010 and 2012, we need to get them back to the polls. 

With stronger grassroots organizing, better technology, and a more consistent message that resonates with the conservative core values of the American people we should be ready for a rematch in 2012. We should set our sights on regaining the 16th Congressional District, replacing Secretary of State Bruner with someone who is committed to open, fair and honest elections, and elect a Governor who understands how to attract and retain jobs.
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